Deteriorated Situations: Bahrain, Belarus, Bosnia, Burkina Faso, Libya, Northern Ireland, Sudan (Northern), Sudan (South), Syria, Thailand, Uganda

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Bahrain Heavy security presence throughout month, despite virtual cessation of protests following March crackdown; wave of arrests of pro-democracy activists, medical workers. Opposition leaders, rights groups alleged prisoners beaten, tortured by security forces; 4 reported to have died in custody. Military court 28 Apr sentenced 4 protesters to death for killing 2 policemen during March demonstrations.

Belarus 13 killed, 149 injured in explosion in Minsk subway station 11 Apr. Several arrested in connection with blast, all from NW city Vitsebsk; President Lukashenka 13 Apr announced 2 suspects had confessed to staging attack, as well as 2 attacks in 2008, 2005; formally charged with terrorism late month. Also ordered security services to interrogate "political actors" over attack, stoking fears blast could be used as pretext for new crackdown on opposition. Opposition activist in West detained and questioned about attack 21 Apr.  EU FMs 12Apr failed to agree on whether to impose tougher economic sanctions on Belarus following Dec 2010 post-election crackdown on opposition.

Bosnia Political crisis intensified, with legal status of Fed¬eration entity (FBiH) govt still unclear and still no state-level govt. 2 main Croat parties, HDZ and HDZ 1990, launched Croat National Assembly 19 Apr, responding to their exclusion in March from FBiH govt. Assembly plans to convene inter¬municipal and inter-cantonal Croat council, denied criticisms that it violates constitution. Republika Srpska (RS) parliament 13 Apr decided to call referendum on High Representative (HR)-imposed laws, especially on "biased" state court and Prosecutor; also passed 28 conclusions attacking legitimacy of HR and Bosnian institutions, and declared HR had violated law by suspending election commission's March ruling that FBiH govt was formed illegally.

Burkina Faso Furtherwave of unrest began 14Apras members of presidential guard mutinied in capital Ouagadougou over non-payment of wages. Looting, rioting spread to at least 3 other cities over following days before self-proclaimed army spokesman 18 Apr called for end to violence, solution through dialogue. Reports said dozens injured, several raped, govt buildings ransacked. Protests by shopkeepers 15Apr, students 18 Apr saw further damage, military facilities burned. In attempt to halt continued unrest, President Compaore 15Apr dismissed govt, military leaders; 18 Apr named Luc Adolphe Tiao new PM; 22 Apr appointed himself defence minister. Police 27 Apr staged mutiny in capital which next day spread to several other cities. Tens of thousands of civilians staged peaceful protest 14Apr against rising prices, poor living conditions.

Libya Fighting continued between govt forces and rebels, with neither able to strike decisive blow despite continuing international military action against Muammar Qaddafi's forces. Ground action largely back-and-forth along central coast road, with exception of protracted siege of rebel-held city M israta by govt troops, where rebels claim over 1,000 killed. UNHCHR 20 Apr said reported use of cluster munitions, targeting of medi¬cal facilities by govt forces could be war crimes. AU delegation 11 Apr proposed peace plan, including immediate ceasefire, negotiated transition. Qaddafi reportedly accepted; rebel Transitional National Council refused, ruling out any role for Qaddafi or sons in future govt. UK, France, Italy 19-20 Apr announced military advisory teams would be dispatched to bolster rebels.

Northern Ireland Catholic police officer killed by car bomb in Omagh 2 Apr. 3 arrested; group calling itself "the IRA" 22Apr claimed responsibility for attack, vowed to embark on bombing campaign. Fears offurther violence around 5 May elections for Northern Ireland Assembly, mid-May visit by Queen. Several large arms finds, foiled bomb attacks over month.

Sudan (Northern) Month saw military build-up in Abyei, mounting tensions ahead of South Kordofan elections in May, continued fighting in Darfur, internal NCPtensions. UNMIS com¬mander early Apr said North and South militarising Abyei; U.S. special envoy Princeton Lyman said build-up "could lead to war". Both sides 13Apr agreed to withdraw unauthorised forces from Abyei, create Joint Technical Committee to monitor redeploy¬ment. President Bashir 27 Apr declared Abyei would remain part of North after South secession in July; meanwhile early draft of South Sudan transitional constitution claims Abyei as territory. In South Kordofan, militia 13Aprkilled at least 17, burned over 350 houses in el-Faid town ahead of delayed gubernatorial and state assembly elections scheduled 2 May;

Sudan (South) Increased fighting between govt and rebel militias mid month saw more than 165 soldiers, rebels, northern tribesman and civilians killed in 7-day period. New rebel group South Sudan Liberation Army (SSLA) led by former Sudan Peo¬ple's Liberation Army (SPLA) general Peter Gadet Yak urged overthrow of President Salva Kiir's govt in 11 Apr "Mayoum Declaration", called for national broad-based govt. At least 30 killed 19 Apr during SPLA clash with suspected forces loyal to renegade Gadet in Unity state. In Jonglei state, SPLAsaid killed at least 55 rebel fighters led by General Gabriel Tanginye 23 Apr; Tanginye reportedly surrendered next day. WFP 27 Apr announced suspension of operations in 7 of 11 Jonglei coun¬ties due to violence. Fighting reported 23 Apr between Thuyic and Gong ethnic groups in Rumbek state left 10 dead.

Syria Sharp escalation in violence during month with some 550 civilians killed since start of anti-regime protests last month; over 110 protesters killed 22 Apr in worst day of bloodshed. Troops and tanks deployed 25 Apr in Deraa, besieged city where revolt began, in violent crackdown. Over 300 members of ruling Baath party resigned late month in protest at ongoing military assault on Deraa. UNSC 28Aprfailed to agree on joint statement condemning repression; UNHRC 29 Apr voted to investigate alleged crimes committed against civilians. U.S. 29 Apr imposed targeted sanctions against regime officials. President Assad 22 Apr lifted 48-year state of emer¬gency' however protesters demanded end of Baath party monopoly, establishment of democratic political system. Authori¬ties blamed armed groups, infiltrators and Sunni Muslim militant organisations for provoking violence by firing on civilians and security forces.

Thailand Violence flared along Thai-Cambodian border late month: at least 14 soldiers, 1 civilian killed in clashes from 22 Apr, tens of thousands displaced on both sides; both sides agreed to ceasefire 28 Apr following military-led talks, but fighting broke out again 29 Apr leaving 1 soldier dead. UK¬based NGO 6 Apr accused army of using cluster munitions in Feb clashes with Cambodia; army 7 Apr admitted using Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions, but claimed it did not classify them as cluster munitions. Tens of thousands of  anti-govt "red shirts" 10 Apr gathered to mark anniversary of deadly 201 0 protests in Bangkok; Dept of Special Investigation said it would press charges against 18 "red shirt" leaders for anti-royalist remarks made during protest. PM Abhisit 26 Apr said border clashes with Cambodia will not delay elections to be held either 26 June or 3 July. National Security Council 11 Apr said Thailand intends to repatriate some 100,000 Burmese refugees back to Myanmar, did not specify timeframe.

Uganda Month dominated by govt clampdown on "walk to work" protests initiated by opposition leaders to demonstrate against rising food and fuel costs. At least 2 killed, dozens injured 29 Apr as violence erupted in Kampala between troops and protesters following news that police 28 Apr violently arrested Kizza Besigye, leader of opposition Forum for Democratic Change; President Museveni 30 Apr vowed to "defeat" wave of demonstrations, unrest.

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Basque Country (Spain), Benin, Bolivia, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Jordan, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus ( Russia), North Korea, Oman, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Timor-Leste, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations: None

May 2011 Outlook:
Conflict Risk Alert: Syria, Yemen
Conflict Resolution Opportunity: Côte d'Ivoire, Yemen