Deteriorated Situations:  Afghanistan, DR Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, South Sudan,  Sudan

Download the full report: CrisisWatch N°101.pdf http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/CrisisWatch/2012/cw101.pdf

Afghanistan bomb attacks by Pakistani Sunni militants Lashkar-e-Jhangvi in Kabul and Mazar-i-Sharif killed 84 people on the Shia holy day of Ashura. Relations with Pakistan remained strained, as Pakistan's boycott overshadowed the Bonn conference. over 90 states and international organisations signed 33-point statement calling for enduring international support beyond 2014. Insurgent attacks continued: 19 killed 7 Dec, 6 killed 13 Dec by roadside bombs in Helmand; at least 20 killed 25 Dec by suicide bomb in Taloq; 10 police killed 29 Dec by roadside bomb, Helmand. High Peace Council said govt will accept Taliban liaison office in Qatar, but no foreign involvement without consent. NATO 19 Dec said night kill-and-capture raids will continue despite repeated protests by Karzai. Senior U.S. commander 20 Dec said U.S. forces could remain beyond 2014 withdrawal date.

DR Congo: Tension remained high after November's flawed presidential and parliamentary elections. Continued violence and repression by security forces claimed at least 30 lives. Incumbent president Joseph Kabila was sworn in for a second term on 20 December, despite international observers finding that the results "lacked credibility". Opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi, who has declared himself president, continues to contest the vote. Kabila's dubious mandate bodes ill for the country's peace and security, especially if legislative polls throw up a pliant parliament - counting of legislative ballots is ongoing.

Guinea-Bissau: Renegade soldiers 26 Dec assaulted Bissau army HQ in attempt to remove army chief Indjai; Angolan MISSANG troops intervened to prevent abduction of PM Gomes JuÅLnior; at least 2 killed. Navy chief Bubo na Tchuto, former army chief Watna na Lai and at least 30 others - including several politicians - accused of orchestrating attack, held in Mansoa military garrison. UNSG Ban 27 Dec condemned use of force to settle differences, AU 29 Dec appointed BurkinabeÅL President CompaoreÅL mediator. Govt, Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP) and ECOWAS failed to reach security sector reform agreement; army chief said deployment of ECOWAS troops could plunge country into turmoil. Tensions continued between opposition and ruling PAIGC over President Sanha's health, possible replacement by National Assembly President Raimundo Pereira, role of MISSANG troops. UNIOGBIS mandate extended until Feb 2013.

Iraq, the official withdrawal of the last U.S. combat troops, nearly nine years after the invasion, was quickly followed by a political crisis. Authorities issued an arrest warrant for the country's top Sunni politician, Vice President Tariq Al-Hashimi, accusing him of running death squads. He and other leading Sunni politicians fled to Kurdistan, while the Iraqiya alliance, to which they belong, protested by boycotting parliament. In turn, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki threatened to abandon the power-sharing agreement. Meanwhile Baghdad was hit by a new wave of attacks by suspected Sunni insurgents linked to al-Qaeda, reigniting fears of a resurgence of sectarian violence.

Kazakhstan: At least fifteen people were killed and 100 injured in Janaozen in western on 16 December as government forces clashed with a crowd including former oil workers, who have been on strike for 6 months. Eyewitnesses and opposition activists allege much higher casualties, amid reports of mass arrests and torture. The violence marks growing social tensions in the country. Elsewhere, the security services' response to several armed jihadi attacks raises questions about the state's ability to handle its security challenges.

Nigeria: President Jonathan 31 Dec declared state of emergency after 22-25, 29 Dec Boko Haram bombings and gun attacks across Northeast and in Abuja killing over 100, leaving 90,000 displaced in northeastern Damaturu city. Police 19 Dec captured 14 Boko Haram militants, seized bomb-making equipment in Kano after shootout that left 3 police and 4 militants dead. 10 killed 13 Dec in Maiduguri in Boko Haram blast targeting soldiers, who allegedly retaliated with indiscriminate shooting, arson. Bomb factory discovered in Maiduguri after 17 Dec residential blast, large quantities of IED materials, AK-47 rifles, ammunition uncovered. At least 50 killed in 31 Dec ethnic land clash, Ebonyi state.

Pakistan: Tensions between  government and military leadership escalated as the Supreme Court began its probe over a memo last May requesting U.S. help to avert a military takeover. The government continues to deny allegations that its former ambassador to the U.S. Hussain Haqqani authorised the memo and rejects the Supreme Court's jurisdiction. Army and intelligence top brass have repeatedly insisted on the Supreme Court investigation, raising fears of a coup. Friction with NATO over its November airstrike on Pakistani border posts continued, with the government boycotting the Bonn conference on Afghanistan in protest and tens of thousands marching in Lahore to demonstrate against the strikes.

Senegal: President Wade 23 Dec confirmed intention to run for controversial 3rd term in Feb election; opposition parties 1 Dec failed to rally behind single candidate to challenge him. Increasing concerns over reported use of youths by political actors to intimidate rivals; leader of Socialist Party's youth league BartheÅLleÅLmy Dias 23 Dec opened fire on reportedly armed Wade supporters, leaving 1 dead. Attacks by separatist Casamance Movement of Democratic Forces (MFDC) on military positions 13, 20 Dec killed 13 soldiers; 5 held hostage. During meeting boycotted by separatist hardliners, MFDC moderate Jean-Marie Francois Biagui 17 Dec announced plan to transform group into political party.

Sudan and South Sudan relations deteriorated further. Tension over the status of Abyei continued, with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon calling for the withdrawal of both sides' armed forces, while the two countries' militaries clashed in the disputed territory of Jau. Southern President Salva Kiir accused Khartoum of destabilising South Sudan with cross-border militia raids and bombings. Khartoum, meanwhile, accuses the South of hosting JEM rebels, who are stepping up attacks in North Kordofan.

Unchanged Situations
Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bolivia, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire, Cyprus, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea, Haiti, Indonesia, Iran, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Jordan, Kashmir, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Macedonia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, North Caucasus (Russia), North Korea, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Rwanda, Serbia, Somalia, Somaliland, Sri Lanka, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations: Bosnia
Bosnia avoided an intensified political crisis as leaders of the six main political parties agreed to form a government at the end of the month, ending fourteen months of deadlock after the October 2010 elections. A new state budget was adopted just in time to avert shutting down state institutions.

January 2012 Outlook
Conflict Risk Alert - None
Conflict Resolution Opportunity - None

International Crisis Group 03/01/12 http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/crisiswatch/2012/crisiswatch-101.aspx