Download the full report: CR120.pdf

Bangladesh a series of rulings by the country's International Crimes Tribunal against former Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) leaders for crimes committed during the 1971 liberation war prompted violent protests, leading to the deaths of four JeI activists. Former JeI leader Ghulam Azam was sentenced to 90 years and JeI Secretary-General and former Al Badr militia chief Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mujaheed was sentenced to death for war crimes and crimes against humanity. On 1 August the High Court banned the Islamist party in light of the rulings.

DR Congo saw renewed fighting between government forces and M23 rebels despite exhortations from regional leaders to conclude peace negotiations as soon as possible (see our new report). On 30 July MONUSCO peacekeeping forces announced the establishment of a security zone around Goma, and called on M23 rebels to disarm. Reports of human rights violations by rebels continued. In North Kivu, operations attributed to Ugandan Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels prompted tens of thousands to flee across the border to Uganda.

Egypt's political crisis took a new and uncertain turn when the military leadership decided on 3 July to oust President Mohamed Morsi from office, following huge protests against his rule on 30 June (see our media release). The military suspended the constitution and appointed head of the Supreme Constitutional Court Adly Mansour as interim president. Mansour issued a roadmap for new elections and appointed a new interim cabinet which includes no Islamists. The military detained and arrested hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood leaders and members, as well as other Islamist politicians who refuse to recognise the legitimacy of the new authorities. Morsi was put under house arrest, and is being investigated for murder and ties with Hamas. Violence intensified as pro-Morsi protesters clashed with security forces and Muslim Brotherhood opponents. Over 80 Morsi supporters were killed in a clash with Republican Guards on 8 July, and over 70 were killed during protests towards the end of the month. On 31 July the interim government said it would take measures to disperse the pro-Muslim Brotherhood sit-ins. Crisis Watch again identifies a conflict risk alert for Egypt.

Iraq saw a further increase in violence with insurgent operations in Sunni-populated areas and attacks by al-Qaeda's Islamic State of Iraq across the country. The UN reported over a thousand people killed in July alone, marking the deadliest month since April 2008. Simultaneous al-Qaeda raids on Abu Ghraib and þ prisons succeeded in freeing over 500 inmates, and a series of al-Qaeda bombings on Shiite majority areas in Baghdad killed over 50. Iraq risks becoming even more deeply involved in the neighbouring Syrian conflict as government forces find it increasingly difficult to stem the flow of weapons and militants across the Iraq-Syria border.

Tunisia: The assassination of opposition MP Mohammed Brahmi in the Tunisian capital on 25 July prompted widespread protests and further fuelled the country's growing political polarisation. Thousands of pro- and anti-government protesters staged sit-ins in front of the National Constituent Assembly (NCA) following the assassination, and 65 opposition members withdrew from the NCA. Governing troika member Ettakatol joined widespread calls for the government to resign. On 31 July the ruling Islamist An-Nahda party said it was open to forming a new government, opening discussions with troika members and the opposition.

South Sudan: Violence in South Sudan's Jonglei state intensified in July when fresh intercommunal violence between Lou Nuer and Murle tribes left dozens dead, hundreds injured and thousands displaced. In Pibor county the national army proved unable to stem ongoing attacks by rebels led by David Yau Yau, and has itself been implicated in attacks on civilians and widespread human rights abuses in Jonglei. On 23 July, President Salva Kiir dismissed his cabinet following increased tensions within the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), shortly afterwards holding consultations on the formation of a new, more unified government.

Zimbabwe held presidential, parliamentary and local elections on 31 July amid widespread reports of irregularities in the run-up to polling day and during the vote itself, including intimidation of voters, imbalanced media and vote-rigging allegations (see our new report). The largest national observer group said the credibility of the elections was "seriously compromised" by a "systematic effort to disenfranchise urban voters" - representing the core support base of Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC party. Tsvangirai called the election a "sham", while figures in President Mugabe's ZANU-PF were already claiming victory. Indications are that the African Union and the Southern African Development Community will accept the election as credible. Observers fear a disputed result could lead to a renewed political crisis in the country. Crisis Watch identifies a conflict risk alert for Zimbabwe.

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, China/Japan, Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire, Cyprus, Ecuador, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Israel-Palestine, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Korean Peninsula, Kosovo, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Libya, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Myanmar, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (Russia) (p.8), Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Senegal, Somalia, Somaliland, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations: None

August 2013 Outlook
Conflict Risk Alert: Egypt, Zimbabwe
Conflict Resolution Opportunity: None